In-Play Time Decay Planner: Map the Market ⏱️📉
Time decay is the engine that drives in-play football trading. If you are backing an Under Goals market, the ticking clock is your best friend—but only if you know how to read it.
Do you know exactly where the price of Under 2.5 will be at minute 35? More importantly, do you know exactly what happens to your liability if an unexpected early goal goes in at minute 20?
The Time Decay Curve Planner is an interactive “flight simulator” for in-play traders. Powered by a true Poisson Distribution engine, this tool calculates the market’s implied goal expectancy and projects the exact, tick-by-tick mathematical decay path of the odds from kick-off to the final whistle.
No more guessing where the price will be. Map your entry and exit points before the referee even blows the whistle.
How to Use the Simulator:
- 1. Establish the Baseline ⚙️
- Select your target market (Under 1.5, 2.5, or 3.5) and input the starting odds just before kick-off. Our engine will instantly back-solve the math to find the market’s true Goal Expectancy (Lambda) and plot the perfect 0-0 decay curve (the dotted line).
- 2. Scrub the Timeline 🖱️
- Use the interactive timeline slider at the bottom to travel through the 90 minutes. The live readouts will show you the exact theoretical odds for your selected minute, allowing you to pinpoint the perfect cash-out or green-up moment.
- 3. Plot the “What Ifs” (Goal Injection) ⚽
- Trading is about preparing for worst-case scenarios. Drag the timeline to a specific minute and hit “Add Goal”. The chart will instantly recalculate, showing you the exact price spike and plotting the new, elevated decay curve for the remainder of the match.
Advanced Tip: Use this tool pre-match to write down your exit prices. For example: “If I back Under 2.5 at 2.00, the math says the price will hit 1.50 by minute 32 if it’s still 0-0. If a goal goes in before then, I know the price will spike to X.” Trading with a mapped-out plan removes the emotion from the equation.